My mentor, colleague, and friend, Larry Edelson had been warning for years that the euro was doomed. And Larry’s AI models predicted that 2017 would be the year of political upheaval.
And the way I see it, he was right on.
The euro crisis is once again in the public eye. And the corruption scandals of career politicians in France are putting the euro near extinction.
In fact, the door is now open for an outsider like Marine Le Pen, the charismatic leader of the National Front, to overtake the establishment.
A victory of Le Pen in the presidential election would most likely lead France to leave the euro. And without the political and economic heavyweight, the rest of the European Monetary Union is unlikely to survive.
Le Pen is still holding up in the polls, making this year’s presidential election in France the most exciting in recent memory. The Socialist and Republican parties, which have held power since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958, could be eliminated in the first round of a presidential ballot on April 23.
In fact, in the runoff on May 7, French voters may be facing a choice between two rebellious candidates: Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, the upstart leader of a liberal movement, which he founded only last year.
Macron is currently leading in the polls to win the runoff vote. But polls are polls: Remember what happened with Brexit and with the U.S. election – the polls were dead wrong.
But it’s not just France: The Netherlands, Spain, Italy, and Greece are all moving toward exiting the EU as well.
In a recent report, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development stated that “falling trust in national governments and lower confidence by voters in the political systems of many countries can make it more difficult for governments to pursue and sustain the policy agenda required to achieve strong and inclusive growth.”
I couldn’t agree more. The lack of confidence in government will be the ultimate undoing of the euro.
Uncertainty over economic policy has skyrocketed since Brexit and the U.S. election. And the upcoming election in France — plus Germany and Netherlands — also pose even greater risk of a further populist uprising in Europe. That means the euro is on borrowed time.