My good friend and colleague, Larry Edelson, was famous for his bold predictions and forecasts on everything from stocks … gold … silver … just about any market that you can think of.
And when he felt a particular market had bottomed and it was the time to buy with both hands, one of his sayings was …
“It’s time to back up the truck.”
This saying was one of my favorites from Larry. And it got me to thinking …
Is it time to back up the truck on gold and silver miners?
The short answer: Not yet.
I have been studying Larry’s AI cycle charts and we’re getting close, no doubt about it.
But we still don’t have the all-clear signal.
In fact, if you take a look at the latest chart on gold miners — the one below is on VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) — you can see that miners are starting to push out of the top of a triangle pattern …
Is this a bullish sign? You bet. If we get a breakout above the top line on the chart, a nice rally into May would definitely be in the cards.
Another big positive: The uptrend line — the bottom line on the chart — is still solidly intact. That tells me that powerful bullish forces are still at play.
Plus, gold stocks are up over 90% from their bottom, with junior miners leading the way, up 118% — another positive.
But there’s no getting around the choppy trading action that this chart shows. And that volatility is going to continue as we stretch further into 2017.
Don’t forget: Gold and silver mining stocks had a huge run after bottoming in January 2016. Initialing surging 151% into August of last year before retreating almost 40% into December. So, they’re no stranger to volatility.
Should we get the breakout I’m anticipating, there will be a handful of key trades — in mining companies and sectors — that would be ripe for profits. But you have to know which are the likely candidates. And more importantly, when to make your trades.
That’s why, all told, the name of the game right now for miners is caution. It’s not quite time to back up the truck.