Is It Time to Back up the Truck on Mining Shares?

My good friend and colleague, Larry Edelson, was famous for his bold predictions and forecasts on everything from stocks … gold … silver … just about any market that you can think of.

And when he felt a particular market had bottomed and it was the time to buy with both hands, one of his sayings was …

“It’s time to back up the truck.”

This saying was one of my favorites from Larry. And it got me to thinking …

Is it time to back up the truck on gold and silver miners?

The short answer: Not yet.

I have been studying Larry’s AI cycle charts and we’re getting close, no doubt about it.

But we still don’t have the all-clear signal.

In fact, if you take a look at the latest chart on gold miners — the one below is on VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) — you can see that miners are starting to push out of the top of a triangle pattern …

Is this a bullish sign? You bet. If we get a breakout above the top line on the chart, a nice rally into May would definitely be in the cards.

Another big positive: The uptrend line — the bottom line on the chart — is still solidly intact. That tells me that powerful bullish forces are still at play.

Plus, gold stocks are up over 90% from their bottom, with junior miners leading the way, up 118% — another positive.

But there’s no getting around the choppy trading action that this chart shows. And that volatility is going to continue as we stretch further into 2017.

Don’t forget: Gold and silver mining stocks had a huge run after bottoming in January 2016. Initialing surging 151% into August of last year before retreating almost 40% into December. So, they’re no stranger to volatility.

Should we get the breakout I’m anticipating, there will be a handful of key trades — in mining companies and sectors — that would be ripe for profits. But you have to know which are the likely candidates. And more importantly, when to make your trades.

That’s why, all told, the name of the game right now for miners is caution. It’s not quite time to back up the truck.

Good Investing,

Mike Burnick

 

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Comments 22

  1. Dave S. April 10, 2017

    That’s my fave Edelson saying and no doubt of many other Edelson fans. Disappointing that we never did back up that truck with Larry.

    Best of luck to all.

    Reply

  2. Henry April 10, 2017

    Larry always said to wait a bit more before backing up the truck. Didn’t want to make a wrong call.

    Reply

    • Bill Thomas April 11, 2017

      Yep, it seems that by the time the truck was backing up, we missed a lot of the gains. Too cautious it my opinion.

      Reply

    • Dave S. April 11, 2017

      Yep, and in his caution he (and we) missed the entire huge run-up from Jan ’16. Irony.

      Reply

  3. Edward W. Allen, M.D. April 10, 2017

    Larry’s last references to a “back up the truck” signal seemed to anticipate a lower price buying opportunity for G & S miners. Have been hoping to catch a bottom for a long time. Do odds favor a bottom yet ahead of us, or are we there now with you looking instead for an upside breakout signal.
    Thanks for your good work. Edward Allen, M.D.

    Reply

    • Dave S. April 11, 2017

      THE bottom was 15 months ago.

      Reply

  4. Antoaneta Pinto April 10, 2017

    Larry, shortly before his death, was selling services for several years ahead. I asked him once: what happens if you die? I got no answer. Today Mike Burnick was doing the math for 10 years ahead. No comment.

    Reply

  5. $1,000 gold April 10, 2017

    good call, mike. the bottom in gold and miners ain’t in yet. when nobody wants gold … time to back up the truck.

    Reply

    • $1,000 gold April 10, 2017

      btw, this is likely just a midway fractal on gold’s journey to the bottom.

      Reply

  6. Brent Shannon April 11, 2017

    Mike I have been following Larry’s lead for the last few years. I am waiting for the payoff to begin any time now because I am drowning. Obviously can’t afford to by every recommendation but the ones I have bought are all still under water. BTG at one point since last Sept I was up 1200.00 around Jan 2017 but held on as reccommended to loose it all back. Timmons never got above the original buy after falling below buy rate of .40 and Vista Gold holding a little under even at 1.05. I made one mistake buying the wrong silver play SLV and it is up 240.00 best thing I have so far in the Gold plays. LOL Brent

    Reply

  7. Peter de Luca April 11, 2017

    As long as the bullion banks control the price of gold and silver, it doesn’t make any sense to use technical analysis to determine when it is time to “back up the truck.” The control silver and gold because of the weakness in the economy. If you are in silver and gold for the long haul, then now is the time. But when the bullion banks decide to stop manipulating silver and gold is more determined by the strength of the economy. When the economy truly improves in a substantial way, then silver and gold will skyrocket. That means new technology for silver and also going back to the gold standard.

    Reply

  8. Lil' Ghetto Boy April 11, 2017

    If you believe in gold & silver, then don’t wait to “backup the truck”. Buy some now, and continue buying in small increments. This way you’re in accumulation mode, and you don’t have to drop huge amounts of cash at any one time. Over time, you will accumulate a decent amount of precious metals for your portfolio.

    Reply

  9. Johnny Appleseed April 11, 2017

    Larry also said at the end of ’16 that silver was going lower (it was <$14) so I didn't jump on SLW at $11.
    It doubled, and that's never a bad play.
    Averaging is way better than waiting for a bell to ring, or trucks.
    When you hear about it, it's history already.
    And all writers hedge their predictions, and go back and cherry pick their quotes.
    If the banks ever do let go of the reigns, $18 will look at good as $13, anyway.
    I'm not looking for Armageddon, or a Lottery win — just "insurance" for a rainy day.
    And the fantasy of $100 silver and $5,000 gold.
    It'll happen, when the Market busts 100,000.
    La-dee-da.
    Over time, the market out-performs metals, so give up the dream (of a nightmare).
    Eat the Blue Pill and come back to reality.
    A Gold Nut

    Reply

  10. Gordon S Roberts April 12, 2017

    I agree with the comments. “They” never get you in at the bottom. I had beginners luck in 1973 and again in 1982 when I called the bottom. Then I lost all my gains in 2000 with a big tax bill on my 1999 gains. Restarted from scratch and don’t have sense to get out now while I’m back up to where I was in 1999. The next crash will kill me. It”s a different game now with the Government levitating the market. The long term is now beyond my life expectancy. Good luck to all you other fans of Larry. My Undertaker also passed away late last year. Bad things happen in threes. Gordon

    Reply

  11. Michael April 12, 2017

    Copper seems to have collapsed today. Not a bullish sign. I believe Larry would wait.

    Reply

  12. john willis April 12, 2017

    I already have a P/U load of Jnug. I feel like the water melon sellers who were buying melons for a dollar and selling for 50 cents.One complained that they were not doing that hot. Yeah the other one agreed, I think we need to get a bigger truck. Let me know when I need to do the same.

    Reply

    • Mike Mirata April 14, 2017

      MAYBE you can explain why JUNG does n ot work at 300% anymore. Every move of GDXJ does not produce a 3X gain on JNUG. It will do another reverse spilt soon, so they can drive it DOWN again.

      Reply

  13. Craig Howe April 12, 2017

    Can you please tell us ” What was the cause of Larrys death ” and could you give as any Gold stock tips that are listed on the AUSTRALIAN STOCK EXCHANGE .
    Also be great if you could show us an update on the gold chart .

    Reply

  14. Jr April 12, 2017

    I miss Larry ?

    Reply

  15. Bill Crozier April 12, 2017

    Mike,
    You are missing out on a few great stock mine gains!
    NAK went up by over 31 % today!!
    It ended the day at about $1.80! Up over 31% today!
    I am hoping it will soon be over $3.00 per share.

    There may be a few others too.
    Bill

    Reply

  16. Ken Nail April 13, 2017

    Thank you Mike, from Larry’s alerts to yours I have complete faith in yours. I have spoken with other investors who are all getting nervous. I am not thanks to your service. I am perfectly comfortable waiting. And my truck is ready.

    Reply

  17. H. Craig Bradley April 13, 2017

    THE CRAZY & THE LAME ARE JUST THE SAME

    Larry ran his A.I. program and occasionally showed his gold and silver price projections for the following 6-12 months to public viewers at no charge. Larry truly believed in his system. However, in practice, I recall it proved to be somewhat inaccurate, as gold and silver prices did not conform ( divergence). So, I remain highly skeptical of predictions as to when or when not to “back up the truck”.

    Gold and Silver are stuck, whether its lack of domestic demand or because of much alleged price suppression by the large bullion banks and the likes of J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sacks. Whether or not past incidents of possible futures price manipulation in precious metals has ever been more than a brief “bear attack” remains inconclusive to me. Its sure no bull market at this time. For the next bull market in precious metals to become evident, a broad-based collapse in public confidence in government must first occur. Its coming, but not yet.

    So, Its easy to blame ones misfortunes or inability to predict and time a market on mysterious “conspiracy” theories. If market manipulation actually was longer term and concerted, then it would be to keep prices up for gains, not artificially keep them suppressed. Those are just diehard gold bugs “selling their book” to gullible retail investors or Wackadoodles like some of Greg Hunter’s guests on his website ( USAWatchdog.com).

    Reply