Cycle Forecasts Call for Short-Term Pain for Gold Bulls

Last week, I made a bullish case for some precious metals that play a dual role, particularly platinum and palladium.

They’re in demand both for industrial use and as a store of wealth.

So, this week, I wanted to review my short- and long-term outlook for a true precious metal – gold.

My latest analysis — backed up by my cycle and historical research — tells me that my $5K gold target could be a bit conservative.

Long-term, the yellow metal could ultimately go much higher in price.

But, in the short-term, the cycles show gold heading a little lower, before finally heading higher again.

So, let’s take a look at the current cycle-forecast chart on gold …

In the chart above, you can clearly see the cycles accurately called for a temporary peak before heading lower into mid-July. So far, it’s right on track.

But, I don’t let the short-term moves impact my long-term view on gold. Neither should you.

In fact, I look at these moves as an opportunity to add to my gold positions.

Why? Because there are still plenty of bullish factors for gold – geopolitical risks and physical demand.

First, there’s an abundance of geopolitical risks facing the global economy, including:

  • Terrorist attacks – Which have been on the rise, especially among European nations.
  • North Korea – Tensions between the U.S. and North Korea are as high as ever.
  • Russia – Investigations into Russia’s meddling with the 2016 U.S. elections are still ongoing.
  • The Middle East – Where the situation is far from under control. And any flare-ups there are worthy of driving more safe-haven demand for gold.
You have a chance to buy gold at bargain prices before it zooms to new highs.

Second, physical demand for gold is rising.

China and India, the world’s two largest consumers of the yellow metal, have seen an uptick in their demand for the yellow metal, after a weaker first quarter.

Additionally, gold is gaining appeal as an attractive alternative investment right now.

That’s because the U.S. stock market is looking toppy on a technical basis and valuations are stretched at current levels. Both of which point to an equity market correction – which will only drive more safe-haven demand toward gold.

The above factors are worthy of propelling gold higher later this year. And that’s why I’m not worried about any short-term weakness in gold – my longer-term outlook is bullish.

In fact, the current weakness in gold presents a good opportunity to accumulate and build a larger position at more attractive levels.

I recommend that you seize this upcoming opportunity to add to your gold positions or to start a new position if you are not already investing in gold.

Plus, gaining exposure to gold in your portfolio is now easier than ever.

You can use ETFs – like purchasing shares of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) – when gold prices finally bottom out later in the summer.

Good investing,

Mike Burnick

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Comments 16

  1. John K June 19, 2017

    I assume you are talking about gold and not gold miners. What is the short term on gold miners look like?

    Reply

  2. Nick June 19, 2017

    The entire FAKE (major Debts federally in many countries, and private debits around the world) economy can go on, and on, and on, and on. However it will stop, and when the FAKE stops, what will you embrace for assurance and finance positioning? At that point, toilet paper will be more valuable then paper currency. Do you have 10 extra rolls of toilet paper around usually, maybe 20, maybe 50? If you answer no, no extra, don’t read any further, STOP READING NOW, AND GO TO WIPE.
    If you answered yes, ( to having extra) why not a few ounces of silver, or gold beside the toilet paper. If you do not have a few ounces, your either, lazy, a player, or your toilet paper fetish isn’t really a sign you understanding much, and you really don’t have any real logistical positioning at all. LMAO, good luck to all of you, some will need luck more then the others, LMAO.

    Reply

  3. iverkhosh June 19, 2017

    Hi Mike,
    What about miners, gold and silver?

    Regards,
    Igor

    Reply

  4. JoAnn King June 19, 2017

    This cycle forecast does not coincide with Larry’s Christmas Gift, his chart on Gold, which shows Gold hitting an all-time high on 07/01/17, before trending downward. Can you explain the discrepancy? This current chart also does not coincide with the one you sent-out just last week, wherein on 06/21/17, it appeared it would peak before declining for short-term pain.
    Thanks for your clarification.

    Reply

  5. Lynette Wood June 19, 2017

    Thank you for your analisis. What do you think about Bullion Vault and or Goldmoney as a way to invest in gold? It seems safe and liquid enough. Your thoughts?

    Thank you;

    Lynette Wood

    Reply

  6. andrew potts June 19, 2017

    please make the dates on your charts larger so I can read them.thank you

    Reply

  7. David Barnes June 19, 2017

    If you forecast gold falling through July…. that’s just the opposite of what you told ewave customers about what jr. miners were going to do!
    You had us buy jnug telling us it would be rising through July. Which is it? By the looks of things …..it’s all down. Like our portfolio!
    Concerned and don’t know what to believe….this article or ewave advice?????

    Reply

  8. Jim McWalters June 19, 2017

    Larry used to give target prices for these kinds of moves. You don’t. Please do.

    Regards,

    Jim M.

    Reply

  9. FrankZ June 20, 2017

    What is recommended here.? Should I sell my current holdings now……..and buy back in 3 weeks time.
    ….or just ride the wave.?

    Reply

  10. Rafael C June 20, 2017

    Mike, I’m losing confidence in you fast. Last month’s Real Wealth report had a very different forecast for gold. It clearly showed gold peaking June 21 (tomorrow). Similar case for the “Christmas gift”. Way off.
    Whereas we understand model calculations change forecast once updated with actuals, this also shows a DIFFERENT forecasted path – in other words, forecasted history is restated to look like the original forecast was right or quite close. It wasn’t.

    Reply

  11. Mike Paczak June 21, 2017

    Would you suggest buying gold Coins Thank You Mike

    Reply

    • Bronson June 24, 2017

      Buy silver rounds or bars. They have less of a premium mark up in price than coins. Do not buy larger than 10 oz bars. Then when you sell the bars, you can sell at different prices when the price is going up. Silver will do much better than gold in the next 4 to 5 years. Gold does not change as wildly in price as silver does. So if you cannot handle short term pain, buy 1 oz gold bars instead of silver. Ebay is a good place to buy them. Buy only from major companies and not individuals. Do not store them at any bank, NEVER. If the banks close, you will not have access to your safe deposit box.

      Reply

  12. Henry June 21, 2017

    Anyone who believes “Russia – Investigations into Russia’s meddling with the 2016 U.S. elections are still ongoing.” this is not worthy of note.

    Reply

  13. MAURICE SHEPPARD June 21, 2017

    I RECALL THAT THE 1987 SELL OFF WIPED OUT MY GOLD STOCKS ALSO. MIGHT THIS NOT HAPPEN WITH THE NEXT CORRECTION. MAURICE

    Reply

  14. MAURICE SHEPPARD June 24, 2017

    WONT A SEVERE PULL BACK IN THE DOW RESULT IN A SEVERE PULL BACK IN GOLD SHARES. ITDID IN 1987.

    Reply

  15. Phoebe July 11, 2017

    Hi Mike,
    is gold going to bottom on 14 July 2017 or is there a change in the cycle forecast chart?

    Best regards,
    Phoebe

    Reply