We Were Headed Down This Path No Matter Who Became Our Next Commander in Chief

Will President-elect Donald Trump deliver on his campaign promises to dig in with an anti-globalization stance and potentially start one or more trade wars?

I have no doubt that he will follow through on this promise. He was clear about one goal throughout his campaign: Getting much tougher on trade relations.

The president-elect has talked up a range of aggressive actions, including:

ArrowLabeling China a currency manipulator …

ArrowSlapping tariffs on goods imported from China and Mexico …

ArrowAnd renegotiating or walking away from trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal that President Obama was pushing.

If President-elect Trump delivers on the protectionist measures he pitched during his campaign, investors can expect increased market volatility, especially in bonds. In fact, it’s already started.

This week alone, global bond investors have seen more than $1 trillion in value wiped out. My view: It’s the start of the sovereign debt crisis as foreign governments and central banks — worried about trade — send a message to Washington. So if Mr. Trump carries through with renegotiating trade deals or slapping tariffs on goods, guess what?

 “Expect increased market volatility.”

Our U.S. Treasury note and bond market will get clobbered, interest rates will soar, compounding the interest on our country’s gargantuan debts … and …

As I’ve been saying, the piper will inevitably and finally get paid.

Washington will go bankrupt, right along with the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is stuck with more than $4.5 trillion of U.S. notes and bonds.

The fact is my cycles and AI models warned of a sovereign bond crisis long before Mr. Trump even decided to run for president. We were heading down this path no matter who became our next Commander in Chief.

Best wishes,

Larry

 

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Comments 74

  1. Mills Tuttle November 14, 2016

    With Trump, are we going to have a 1974 Recession during or after Trump’s four or eight year Preidency?

    Reply

    • Hugh November 19, 2016

      Mills…I don’t think Trump Wants another term…He will prime V.P Pence and let him Carry-on his Plan.. Remember Trump is 70 years Old and I don’t Think He Really Wants To Be President””” He is Just getting the dead beats out of Government.All you have to do is Pay attention to his Speeches During His Run

      Reply

  2. Mills Tuttle November 14, 2016

    With Trump, are we going to have a 1974 Recession during or after Trump’s four or eight year Preidency?

    Reply

    • george November 16, 2016

      After he’s gone;

      Reply

    • Hugh November 19, 2016

      Mills…I don’t think Trump Wants another term…He will prime V.P Pence and let him Carry-on his Plan.. Remember Trump is 70 years Old and I don’t Think He Really Wants To Be President””” He is Just getting the dead beats out of Government.All you have to do is Pay attention to his Speeches During His Run

      Reply

  3. Tom Burnett November 14, 2016

    Please address the Gold market as soon as possible !!! – I follow you closely on that –

    Reply

  4. Tom Burnett November 14, 2016

    Please address the Gold market as soon as possible !!! – I follow you closely on that –

    Reply

  5. Sinjil November 14, 2016

    Thoughts on Gold?

    Reply

  6. Sinjil November 14, 2016

    Thoughts on Gold?

    Reply

  7. FRANK G. November 14, 2016

    What you and everybody misses is that there is no such thing as a trade deal.
    These are political statements which involve much more than trade.
    Many people come to the table with their hands out having to do with kickbacks.
    Look at Hillary. We agree to be nice to people and, because we are so nice, take advantage of us such as in the Mexican border problem. They hold us hostage and threaten that if we do something about the border they will violate some trade agreement.

    Here is another great example. The TPP requires us to pay india and china billions to clean up their air and we promise to clean up ours to clean room standards.
    So lets talk some common sense first and see what Trumps common sense approach
    does before we comment. Carry a big stick and use it if you really have to but it is rarely needed.

    Reply

    • WILLIAM P JORDAN November 16, 2016

      Common sense? Does that apply to anyone that voted fir Trump + right wing Republicans? Lets go back to Teddy Roosevelt, at least republicans were semi lucid then.

      Reply

      • Chet November 19, 2016

        All your Demacratic voters over the past 8 yrs are the ones who put us in this position to begin with. All this liberal living and Obama’s inexperience at running anything is the main reason are government in disrepair and hense Comes Donald Trump talking change and this is the reason he is our next President. We all know change is the answer not same old, same old. Wake up and smell the coffee and stop inciting people to demonstrate against a man who has not even been sworn in as of this writing. Stop being a hypocrite and doing something good for our country God knows we need it.

        Reply

  8. FRANK G. November 14, 2016

    What you and everybody misses is that there is no such thing as a trade deal.
    These are political statements which involve much more than trade.
    Many people come to the table with their hands out having to do with kickbacks.
    Look at Hillary. We agree to be nice to people and, because we are so nice, take advantage of us such as in the Mexican border problem. They hold us hostage and threaten that if we do something about the border they will violate some trade agreement.

    Here is another great example. The TPP requires us to pay india and china billions to clean up their air and we promise to clean up ours to clean room standards.
    So lets talk some common sense first and see what Trumps common sense approach
    does before we comment. Carry a big stick and use it if you really have to but it is rarely needed.

    Reply

    • WILLIAM P JORDAN November 16, 2016

      Common sense? Does that apply to anyone that voted fir Trump + right wing Republicans? Lets go back to Teddy Roosevelt, at least republicans were semi lucid then.

      Reply

      • Chet November 19, 2016

        All your Demacratic voters over the past 8 yrs are the ones who put us in this position to begin with. All this liberal living and Obama’s inexperience at running anything is the main reason are government in disrepair and hense Comes Donald Trump talking change and this is the reason he is our next President. We all know change is the answer not same old, same old. Wake up and smell the coffee and stop inciting people to demonstrate against a man who has not even been sworn in as of this writing. Stop being a hypocrite and doing something good for our country God knows we need it.

        Reply

  9. Dan S November 14, 2016

    First treasury notes and bonds,then a highly over valued stock market. But when will the Greenback finally collapse as a reserve currency? Items of material value other than large taxable items, such as real estate, seem to be a safe investment for the future.

    Reply

  10. Dan S November 14, 2016

    First treasury notes and bonds,then a highly over valued stock market. But when will the Greenback finally collapse as a reserve currency? Items of material value other than large taxable items, such as real estate, seem to be a safe investment for the future.

    Reply

  11. ian November 14, 2016

    In the spinting blocks,but sorry sticking to the charts

    Reply

  12. ian November 14, 2016

    In the spinting blocks,but sorry sticking to the charts

    Reply

  13. Richard Daugherty November 14, 2016

    Time to bite the bullet!!

    Reply

  14. Tom November 14, 2016

    Yep.

    Reply

  15. Tom November 14, 2016

    Yep.

    Reply

  16. S Knight November 14, 2016

    Good calls. You are right on the money in all ways.
    I wonder about all the commodities…

    Reply

  17. S Knight November 14, 2016

    Good calls. You are right on the money in all ways.
    I wonder about all the commodities…

    Reply

  18. Hults November 14, 2016

    Go buy more GOLD, Larry, but please leave doomsday politics alone. We are not heading for Armageddon.

    Reply

    • Sinjil November 15, 2016

      Exactly Hults. I usually tend to discredit people who talks about doomsday and the future of the economy.

      Reply

  19. Hults November 14, 2016

    Go buy more GOLD, Larry, but please leave doomsday politics alone. We are not heading for Armageddon.

    Reply

    • WasteLand Warrior November 15, 2016

      I, like Larry, beg to differ..It may have been delayed and postponed a few times, but the more they do, the bigger the bubble gets and when it blows it’s going to blow big, it’s GOING to be Armageddon…Not preparing for the eventual inevitable and denying it will ever happen will just leave you standing there with your pants around your ankles… Keep your powder dry my friends!

      Reply

      • Rick November 15, 2016

        Agree. The confluence of many different types of cycles is here?

        Reply

    • Sinjil November 15, 2016

      Exactly Hults. I usually tend to discredit people who talks about doomsday and the future of the economy.

      Reply

  20. Barbara Handly November 14, 2016

    It’s bound to happen regardless. However, perhaps it’s wise for the US to become more productive for its citizens when s.. hits the fan.

    Reply

  21. Barbara Handly November 14, 2016

    It’s bound to happen regardless. However, perhaps it’s wise for the US to become more productive for its citizens when s.. hits the fan.

    Reply

  22. Craig November 14, 2016

    The down side of multi-national corporations is that they have no permanent address. They generate massive income well in excess of many governments so they can change their location quickly, acquire key resources quickly (including buying the favors of local politicians) and bank their profits in tax favorable jurisdictions. National governments are created and laws are passed by progressive populations and institutions to provide minimal living standards, access to education, religious freedom and the ability to participate in rule-making to the 99.9999% of the rest of the population who are not situated in the miniscule elite who have almost complete unfettered control of the majority of the world’s institutions and assets. The TPP and many multi-national trade deals and institutions move control of these critical assets beyond local government “government by the people and for the people”. Since many countries in the world do not recognize basic human rights and much of the world is in desperate poverty it is relatively easy for multi-national corporations to virtually enslave local populations, despoil the environment for maximum profit, bank their profits tax-free in international tax havens and continue to acquire control of what’s remaining of the world’s assets while trashing the worlds environment and driving the world’s population to destitution. Thus we see the unelected EU driving Europe to ruin, we see depleted uranium weapons being used in Eastern Europe and the Mideast and we see elements of the American political system trying to move social and political controls of the national economy and the environment beyond control of American citizens. We in the United States have also seen a continuing trend under successive administrations of enlargement of federal bureaucracies and rulemaking powers thereby taking decisions out of the hands of state governments and local citizen’s organizations, these citizens organizations and state’s powers being a natural system of checks and balances on centralized authority. Media ownership is heavily concentrated and seems to support the growth of an expanded federal govenrment because media is largely controlled by multi-national monetary interests. Corporate interests most likely support concentrating power in the hands of just a few individuals because they don’t have to buy as many people and it is a more efficient use of their lobbying funds. For instance there are only 435 representatives in the house and 100 senators. With a minimal investment let’s say $200,000 dollars per individual you could wield substantial weight in Washington D.C. for about $107 million dollars, a minor expense in exchange for control of trillion dollar economies around the world.

    Reply

    • Ralph November 15, 2016

      Quite well written Craig.
      However …
      I do not sense Mr. Trump ever being the next “David” for the MultiNatCorp’s “Goliath.”
      … just another figurehead-puppet-president with a short attention span and reactive, fear generating ‘orations’ who will probably be easily controlled by MNC environmental-rapist$ and con-$ervative attack-dog “handler$.”

      Reply

  23. Craig November 14, 2016

    The down side of multi-national corporations is that they have no permanent address. They generate massive income well in excess of many governments so they can change their location quickly, acquire key resources quickly (including buying the favors of local politicians) and bank their profits in tax favorable jurisdictions. National governments are created and laws are passed by progressive populations and institutions to provide minimal living standards, access to education, religious freedom and the ability to participate in rule-making to the 99.9999% of the rest of the population who are not situated in the miniscule elite who have almost complete unfettered control of the majority of the world’s institutions and assets. The TPP and many multi-national trade deals and institutions move control of these critical assets beyond local government “government by the people and for the people”. Since many countries in the world do not recognize basic human rights and much of the world is in desperate poverty it is relatively easy for multi-national corporations to virtually enslave local populations, despoil the environment for maximum profit, bank their profits tax-free in international tax havens and continue to acquire control of what’s remaining of the world’s assets while trashing the worlds environment and driving the world’s population to destitution. Thus we see the unelected EU driving Europe to ruin, we see depleted uranium weapons being used in Eastern Europe and the Mideast and we see elements of the American political system trying to move social and political controls of the national economy and the environment beyond control of American citizens. We in the United States have also seen a continuing trend under successive administrations of enlargement of federal bureaucracies and rulemaking powers thereby taking decisions out of the hands of state governments and local citizen’s organizations, these citizens organizations and state’s powers being a natural system of checks and balances on centralized authority. Media ownership is heavily concentrated and seems to support the growth of an expanded federal govenrment because media is largely controlled by multi-national monetary interests. Corporate interests most likely support concentrating power in the hands of just a few individuals because they don’t have to buy as many people and it is a more efficient use of their lobbying funds. For instance there are only 435 representatives in the house and 100 senators. With a minimal investment let’s say $200,000 dollars per individual you could wield substantial weight in Washington D.C. for about $107 million dollars, a minor expense in exchange for control of trillion dollar economies around the world.

    Reply

    • Ralph November 15, 2016

      Quite well written Craig.
      However …
      I do not sense Mr. Trump ever being the next “David” for the MultiNatCorp’s “Goliath.”
      … just another figurehead-puppet-president with a short attention span and reactive, fear generating ‘orations’ who will probably be easily controlled by MNC environmental-rapist$ and con-$ervative attack-dog “handler$.”

      Reply

  24. Randy November 14, 2016

    What do you think of the Canadian dollar as an alternative to the U.S. dollar as we move into the next currency crisis? Your thoughts on the Australian dollar vs U.S. dollar as Gold & Silver move higher?

    Reply

    • James Bursey November 15, 2016

      The US has the strongest economy in the World. Canada and Australia are pipsqueaks by comparison, with resource dominated economies with declining value-added as their manufacturing bases shrink (since 2000, Canada has lost 60% of its manufacturing base). Both countries suffer from an oligopolistic banking system that with the national investment regulators restricts or discourages locals from investing in anything but the stock market (virtually no private equity formation). Being ‘hewers of wood and drawers of water’ makes their economies only as strong as the commodity markets allow, and peaceful so long as employment is stable. Canada has lost hundreds of thousands of permanent jobs since 2014 (the major job growth is in ‘self employed’ and ‘part time labour’), while the US has added millions of full-time jobs. Now which dollar do you want to invest in?

      A Canadian Investor

      Reply

  25. Dick Chase November 14, 2016

    Which will cause gold and silver to soar.

    Reply

  26. Dick Chase November 14, 2016

    Which will cause gold and silver to soar.

    Reply

  27. Clara Essen November 14, 2016

    We should all have patient and see what the vote offered.

    Reply

  28. Clara Essen November 14, 2016

    We should all have patient and see what the vote offered.

    Reply

  29. Tj Blue November 14, 2016

    Stilll recovering from W’s fiasco.

    Reply

    • Paul H November 15, 2016

      Still have NOT recovered from the Obama fiasco!

      Reply

      • hawk5000 November 15, 2016

        america could never recover from the obama legacy especially a continuation of it in the clinton / obama legacy but now that there finally a little common sense with the election of trump MAYBE JUST MAYBE AMERICA HAS A CHANCE AGAIN oh and for all you LOVE TRUMPS HATE people well maybe but TRUMP TRUMPS LYING HILLERY

        Reply

  30. Tj Blue November 14, 2016

    Stilll recovering from W’s fiasco.

    Reply

  31. Mario November 15, 2016

    Hi Larry ,
    Please tell us about Gold , is the price going to go lower in the short term or what ?
    I think I load the track to soon , if I would of board it now I would save at list 20 %
    Regards
    Mario

    Reply

  32. Mario November 15, 2016

    Hi Larry
    is the Oil price ever going to reach $60 a barrel before going down to $26 like you said ?
    Molte Grazie !!!!
    Mario

    Reply

  33. Mario November 15, 2016

    Hi Larry
    is the Oil price ever going to reach $60 a barrel before going down to $26 like you said ?
    Molte Grazie !!!!
    Mario

    Reply

  34. JSRFrench November 15, 2016

    The path has been set for a Dollar bankruptcy with a value reset tied to payoff of current debt. Government digital currency rising from the ashes with paper confiscation & conversion at price set then abolished.
    This digital New Dollar can be easily value tied directly to new Government debt & Fed manipulated.
    Problematic is jurisdictional, achieved by overcoming multinational resistance which when successful would end bullion commodity value trade speculation. Oil could become stabilized, Real Estate bubbles controlled.
    Endgame is a further shrinking minuscule Elite with a broadening worker class, Kings & Peons.

    Reply

  35. JSRFrench November 15, 2016

    The path has been set for a Dollar bankruptcy with a value reset tied to payoff of current debt. Government digital currency rising from the ashes with paper confiscation & conversion at price set then abolished.
    This digital New Dollar can be easily value tied directly to new Government debt & Fed manipulated.
    Problematic is jurisdictional, achieved by overcoming multinational resistance which when successful would end bullion commodity value trade speculation. Oil could become stabilized, Real Estate bubbles controlled.
    Endgame is a further shrinking minuscule Elite with a broadening worker class, Kings & Peons.

    Reply

  36. Nick November 15, 2016

    Hi Larry,
    Been following you and Martin FOREVER and I was just curious, are you “Getting” anything on who will win the Superbowl this year? Thanks and keep up the good work!! Oh, and by the way, Washington is ALREADY BANKRUPT, WHO GIVES A RAT’S ASS about the NOT US Federal Reserve, and “Interest rates will soar?” The Federal Reserve just went BANKRUPT I thought so WHO do we OWE these EXHORBITANT INTEREST PAYMENTS TO? China? Saudi Arabia? WHO? The Rothschilds? LoL, REALLY?

    Reply

  37. Nick November 15, 2016

    Hi Larry,
    Been following you and Martin FOREVER and I was just curious, are you “Getting” anything on who will win the Superbowl this year? Thanks and keep up the good work!! Oh, and by the way, Washington is ALREADY BANKRUPT, WHO GIVES A RAT’S ASS about the NOT US Federal Reserve, and “Interest rates will soar?” The Federal Reserve just went BANKRUPT I thought so WHO do we OWE these EXHORBITANT INTEREST PAYMENTS TO? China? Saudi Arabia? WHO? The Rothschilds? LoL, REALLY?

    Reply

  38. Karl November 15, 2016

    What will gold and silver be worth when we become a cashless society, not too far into the future.

    Reply

    • Ray November 16, 2016

      I hear N read people talking about METALS this N THAT,
      It’s HARD TO BELIEVE anything that is said by ANYONE now a days, WHO to BELIEVE? Now I do believe the way our DOLLAR is going we R going to have to do something about it, right now do U think METALS Is a safe haven for the FUTURE? Please advise me on this. Thank you…………R

      Reply

  39. Karl November 15, 2016

    What will gold and silver be worth when we become a cashless society, not too far into the future.

    Reply

    • Ray November 16, 2016

      I hear N read people talking about METALS this N THAT,
      It’s HARD TO BELIEVE anything that is said by ANYONE now a days, WHO to BELIEVE? Now I do believe the way our DOLLAR is going we R going to have to do something about it, right now do U think METALS Is a safe haven for the FUTURE? Please advise me on this. Thank you…………R

      Reply

  40. hawk5000 November 15, 2016

    america could never recover from the obama legacy especially a continuation of it in the clinton / obama legacy but now that there finally a little common sense with the election of trump MAYBE JUST MAYBE AMERICA HAS A CHANCE AGAIN oh and for all you LOVE TRUMPS HATE people well maybe but TRUMP TRUMPS LYING HILLERY

    Reply

  41. Michael November 15, 2016

    Hello Larry, Much as I appreciate you and your work, please allow me to correct one error: The President is only Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. military, not of the American people. Otherwise we would be in an outright dictatorship. That is why I always try to correct this well-meant error in terminology. Keep up your good work, sir. Thank you.

    Reply

  42. Michael November 15, 2016

    Hello Larry, Much as I appreciate you and your work, please allow me to correct one error: The President is only Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. military, not of the American people. Otherwise we would be in an outright dictatorship. That is why I always try to correct this well-meant error in terminology. Keep up your good work, sir. Thank you.

    Reply

  43. Simon Griskonis November 15, 2016

    Don’t ever underestimate the Trump he has an idea what he wants to accomplish and because he’s not sharing it with the media or the people who know it all don’t underestimate him he never makes a move without a purpose

    Reply

  44. Simon Griskonis November 15, 2016

    Don’t ever underestimate the Trump he has an idea what he wants to accomplish and because he’s not sharing it with the media or the people who know it all don’t underestimate him he never makes a move without a purpose

    Reply

  45. Riichard November 15, 2016

    What will, or can Trump do about the artificial manipulation of the silver market? Can’t he just tell the banks to stop selling paper silver without having the stuff in hand? The silver market price should be much higher considering the huge, upcoming demand for silver in the solar energy field to combat global warming.
    Seems like an easy fix. Why should big banks be allowed to do this with impunity.???

    Reply

  46. Rick November 15, 2016

    Agree. The confluence of many different types of cycles is here?

    Reply

  47. Rob November 16, 2016

    Larry, The piper won’t finally get paid, no one has any money,.

    Reply

  48. Rob November 16, 2016

    Larry, The piper won’t finally get paid, no one has any money,.

    Reply

  49. Ddaddy November 16, 2016

    There is an old adage: It’s hard to remember that you intend to drain the swamp when you are up to your ass in alligators. Just hope the water level can be lowered a little. Short term problems will overwhelm long-term solutions; especially when the long-term power elite are the short-term problem

    Reply

  50. Ddaddy November 16, 2016

    There is an old adage: It’s hard to remember that you intend to drain the swamp when you are up to your ass in alligators. Just hope the water level can be lowered a little. Short term problems will overwhelm long-term solutions; especially when the long-term power elite are the short-term problem

    Reply

  51. satan smith November 17, 2016

    we have been sold out by our own gov all job s are out sourced china is a currency manipulator true yes r jobs r in mex true average salary in china $200 a month any question ?

    Reply

  52. satan smith November 17, 2016

    we have been sold out by our own gov all job s are out sourced china is a currency manipulator true yes r jobs r in mex true average salary in china $200 a month any question ?

    Reply

  53. James A Zurlo November 19, 2016

    Is there any good news anymore. Everything I read lately is just gloom and doom? What is the point of even being concerned about what will happen to this great country, is just seems so evident that we are headed for a very destructive crash. Were do we go from here?

    Reply

  54. James A Zurlo November 19, 2016

    Is there any good news anymore. Everything I read lately is just gloom and doom? What is the point of even being concerned about what will happen to this great country, is just seems so evident that we are headed for a very destructive crash. Were do we go from here?

    Reply

  55. John November 21, 2016

    The S&P 500 trading / 27pe multiple it only traded higher in the.com bubble you should be thinking about buying shortly Banks Faz is 552 trillion in derivatives these banks are holding for 50 trillion a piece when they come falling down that’ll be the end of the the bubble Let The Dominoes fall

    Reply