China Jockeying for Position in South China Sea

Hullabaloo over President Trump’s policies, his nationalist stance and fears over potential trade conflicts may have turned some investors’ focus away from numerous geopolitical hotspots.

But not mine.

In fact, these hotspots are going to get worse before they get better … and they play right into my larger War Cycle research.

Take for example the latest – and frankly stealthy developments – growing from the budding romance between China and the Philippines.

No question this duo has experienced their share of conflict – but that’s changing. Especially as China contemplates its military ambitions and the Philippines’ strategic location in the South China Sea. Plus, it’s no secret that the Philippines’ populist President Rodrigo Duterte is open to a new relationship with China.

Let’s Make a Deal

In late January, China made good on an initial $3.7 billion investment (part of a $24 billion deal) to aid the Philippines in numerous infrastructure projects. The investment represents a massive 75% of total foreign investment into the Philippines throughout 2015 ($4.9 billion).

And you can be certain this investment is not a philanthropic exercise to help their neighbor.

From my lens, China’s maneuvering is to gain naval access beyond the first island chain and ultimately station military assets at a strategic location in the Pacific.

Complications

The U.S. has a defense treaty with the Philippines, allowing U.S. warships to move freely from the Pacific to Middle East war zones in return for U.S. defense.

But that’s in jeopardy after the U.S. didn’t adequately come to the Philippines’ defense when China took control of Scarborough Shoal and other islands. And that’s territory that China is now building runways and stationing missile batteries on.

Meanwhile, China’s late 2016 seizure of an American underwater surveillance drone in the region underscores the tense and volatile relationship.

The conflict is further aggravated by comments from newly appointed U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson regarding tensions in the South China Sea: “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that … island-building stops and access to those islands is not going to be allowed.”

Wow. Talk about a South Pacific powder keg.

What does this mean to you?

This plays into the growing dissent in the world that I’ve been screaming about for years. One that my extensive war cycle research says will turn violently higher, heading all the way up into the year 2020/21 before any lull is found.

The war cycles are real. They are documented and scientifically proven and based on over 14,000 wars spanning 5,000 years of civilization.

And these war cycles are just one component in an intersection of multiple cycles I call the Edelson Wave that are now converging into the most powerful tidal-wave of economic and political upheaval in more than eighty years.

It’s going to impact markets in ways you simply must prepare for. And that’s exactly what subscribers to the Real Wealth Report have entrusted me to do: Preserve and growth wealth.

Best wishes,

Larry

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Comments 22

  1. Robert Sik February 3, 2017

    I might remind the Chinese of what George Patton said ” fixed fortifications are monuments to man’s stupidity”.
    Also I might remind the adversaries that ” Amateurs think tactics professionals think logistics “

    Reply

  2. King Ralph February 3, 2017

    Trump’s plan is to corner the market in chop sticks.

    Reply

  3. Deke February 3, 2017

    How long will it take for China to cozy up to Mexico and send their troops to aid the Mexican army if/when trump sends our troops across the border?
    How long will it take China to establish a new massive trade agreement with Mexico including taking ALL the oil Mexico can produce?
    How will trump and his cronies explain Chinese troops on our southern border? Just asking – have the idiots in the WH giving any thought to the exposure their misguided international policies could produce? Have they ever heard of “Unintended Consequences”?
    I would love to read your comments on the above and how this might influence your “War Cycle”.

    Reply

    • ROBERTJELACA February 5, 2017

      chineses troops must keep slaves in line,coms in power ,KEEP MANCHURIAN border with RUSSIA AND JAPAN SECURE,KEEP LONG TIME ENEMIES SIAM ,NAM ,KOREA, BURMA SECURE AND IN CHECK AT THE SAME TIME,ALL THIS WHILE CONSTRUCTING THE SILK ROAD INVASION ROUTE THROUGH THE HEART OF SW ASIA,THESE MOVES ARE TO KEEP DOMINANT USA PAC FLEET AT BAY WHEN THEY BEGIN THEIR MOVE ON ISREAL AND THE MIDDLE EAST
      once they clear the aafgan barrier they can fan out in the plains of IRAN WITH ATIDAL WAVE OF TANKS AND INFANTRY MOVING BEHIND IRANIAN TACTICAL NUKES (jlike that litte ROCKET THEY JUST TESTED THAT IS JUST FOR 20KMS AHEAD)

      Reply

  4. Bill Corcoran February 3, 2017

    Right On!!! Whats the signal that it’s time to buy GOLD?

    Reply

  5. WALTER WASYLKO February 3, 2017

    Larry,
    If Trump is ripping up all trade & defense treaties & makes daily threats against neighboring countries, China & Philippines must protect themselves from this war-mongering American president. They are only acting in their own self interest to protect their sovereignty.
    USA never came to defense of their friends & allies after WWII even though it signed agreements to do so — you mention Philippines – but there’s also Hungary, Czechoslovakia & Ukraine. And then there are Iraq, Syria & Yemen, where USA destroys innocent people & creates millions of refugees. Here it fights with drone warfare killing thousands of innocent people under pretense of murdering ISIS leaders.
    Philippines has every right to provide access to its navy bases for China’s navy ships & not allow access to Americans.
    Tillerson has no business threatening China about the South China Sea.
    It’s Trump that is the major threat to the whole world & will bring about economic & war calamity.

    Reply

  6. A friend who cares February 3, 2017

    Larry,
    I’m a subscriber of your service and read just about every message you publish on the internet. But, I feel compelled to alert you to the possibility of your doing substantial harm to yourself by the quantity and intensity of your “patting yourself on the back” to the degree that you do in your messages. It’s simply not necessary. I and I suspect many of your readers would suggest that humility, particularly with your record of success, would exhibit considerable and noteworthy professionalism, a distinct divergence from your current practice, which, quite frankly, pisses me and many of us off!!

    Reply

  7. Dick Lund February 4, 2017

    This is all GO Politically interesting, but how is it actionable. Dickie

    Reply

  8. joan casson February 4, 2017

    Larry one thing that seems to be missing in precious metals promotions. They leave out the differences in taxation between buying bullion and collectibles versus stocks and etfs. The cap,ital gains tax on precious metals sales is considerably higher than on stocks as I understand it, as it was never lowered when the securities gain tax was lowered. Moreover, many States such as New Mexico, where I live, include sales as taxable under their gross receipt tax, others under their sales tax, These are combined significant hurdles to be overcome, and detract from the purchase of bullion.Perhaps I do not understand the tax code in this regard

    I am surprised the gold and silver people have not mounted a significant lobby in recent years to rectify this disparity, if my understanding is correct,

    Reply

  9. Jas February 4, 2017

    How’s this gonna affect the dollarization of the world economy I would like to know?

    Reply

  10. kevin February 4, 2017

    Larry, I too am a subscriber and I agree with “a friend who cares”.

    Reply

  11. charles February 4, 2017

    Dear: a friend who cares I for one don’t care what pisses you off.Many years ago I was contracting the work on a man home in Northwest Florida. He had sold off his business and bought a 170 acre ranch where he had his house built with a indoor heated pool RV with gold plated trim. His Garage was big as my house was and the existing home on the property was the maid house. He loved to brag about his wealth and I liked hearing about it especially the diamonds. only thing I wasn’t envious of his was his wife. But the man working for me hated hearing of his success and seeing all his toys, He was an ex crack addict and driving around while license revoked forever. You see misery loves company, and a grieving broken one a shoulder to cry on. Just because you don’t share the thrill of success and accomplishment shouldn’t be a reason to lash out unless your without hope and slipping in your ways of poverty.

    Reply

  12. jim crawford February 5, 2017

    how do we trade this

    Reply

  13. Jason February 5, 2017

    Larry,

    As long term subscriber to your newsletter I’ve avidly followed your comments on war cycles since you first began discussing them. The news of China building political ties with the Philippines is as naively unexpected as it is chilling.
    Do you think this development along with the new administration’s apparent desire to wield a big stick will lead to an active naval or even ground war with China? If so, how does that impact the markets, both stock and commodities?

    Reply

  14. Jason February 5, 2017

    Response to “A friend that cares.”
    This is not so much a rebuttal to your comment – it’s fine to dislike an aspect of anyone’s publications. For those of us who are subscribers, and even long term subscribers, I’d like to propose a different view.
    Telling the world about how right you’ve been is a marketing tool. One that brings in new subscribers. The message above is a free message targeted at newbies who do not subscribe. While it is a piece of information with specific very real and important insights, the primary point is not to inform you and I, the subscribers, but to get new subscribers.
    So, when I read where Larry tells how well he has done, I for one, either skip over it as a message for others, or just pat myself on the back for having selected Larry as the author of one of the very few economic newsletters I have retained over the years. I’ve tried a large number of services and few have stood the test of time. It doesn’t offend me to be reminded of my good fortune that I can easily consider my good judgement.
    We all win.

    Reply

  15. David Teitelman February 5, 2017

    Caos causes cash !!!

    Reply

  16. H. Craig Bradley February 8, 2017

    CHOICES; FUNDING CONSTRAINTS & LEAVING IRAN TO ITS OWN “DEVICES”

    I think we may be looking at another Theater of War, besides the existing ones ( Middle East Drone Strikes), Ukraine, and NATO troop positioning in the Balkans. Clearly, we might soon have more wars and conflicts brewing than our sparsely scattered (strained) military assets can possibly contain. So, if we choose to build-up the Navy, as President Trump has said he intends to do ( build 11 new Naval warships) then we have to leave Iran “to its own devices” for the time being. We simply don’t have the military resources required to do it all anymore. So, President Trump will have to pick and choose his “fights”.

    Reply

  17. duncwa March 4, 2017

    Cryptocurrencies are the alternative to waging a war in which there will be zero winners. The leaders of the west know this as does the east. Why are all governments implicitly supporting Bitcoin via there central banking policies? Because, for the FIRST time, 1) the world knows that a transition from the dominant reserve currency must occur WITHOUT war, 2) this must happen without war, as opposed to the past 10,000 years of civilization, because WMD use insures zero winners and the death of international trade over water (China knows this, and is planning accordingly, their weapons are designed to deny access–the three gorges project is designed to support a rail gun infrastructure missle defense battery; and their Silk Road reconstruction efforts will insure their ability to trade without sea lane access FROM China), 3) Bitcoin is so far from anonymous and will prove to be the single most viable tool in tracing illegal purchases and unpaid taxes AND 4) cryptocurrencies are a central authorities dream come true.

    Reply

  18. John March 8, 2017

    Not the time for US warmongers to push their agenda.

    Reply

    • John March 8, 2017

      US and Sth Korea playing their war games and propaganda against Nth Korea.

      Reply

  19. revmurphy3 September 15, 2017

    These cyclical folks say that their cyclical’s are unavoidable and that N.Korea is intensifying the war cycle. On the one hand there is nothing we can do, and on the other human actions empower them,(or maybe slow them and disempower them.) It says the son will make it’s journey to dawn every 24 hours but we can speed that up or maybe
    slow it down. Even if the cyclical is definite and predictable, we can still altar it by making it stronger or faster by our actions.
    This appears to me to be impossible. If A is true than B can’t be. Or if A can be changed than A is not count-on-able. If I hold my palms up, I can’t hold them down at the same time. All of these are having our cake and eating it too which I have never been able to pull off. I must be missing something here. That, or I’m paying for information that is basically worthless. Can someone help me out here?

    Reply