Energy Stocks are Cheap and Hated: Time to Buy!

It has been a tough year for energy-sector bulls, no doubt about it.

As my colleague David Dutkewych pointed out last week, crude oil prices plunged almost 11 percent during the second quarter. And year-to-date, black gold has been the worst performing commodity, down 17.6% since January 1st.

It’s been so bad that even die-hard energy bulls are throwing in the towel. But that kind of capitulation is exactly what makes up lasting bottoms.

And as David pointed out last Thursday, oil may not have bottomed quite yet. However, a tradable bottom is fast approaching for energy-sector stocks.

Here are four good reasons why …

First, after working through a glut of crude oil supply in recent months, the supply-demand picture is now swinging back into balance. I won’t go into the same stats David covered last week, but suffice it to say that crude oil inventories are set to decline in the months ahead, perhaps by 1 million barrels a day or more.

Second, energy bulls are running for the hills. The net positioning by speculators in NYMEX crude oil futures has dropped by about 50% from the peak early this year. Even mom-&-pop investors are throwing in the towel on energy.

One of the largest ETFs tracking energy stocks, the iShares Dow Jones US Energy Sector ETF (IYE), has suffered cash outflows of $45.8 million year-to-date, and $5.4 million in the past week alone! Retail investors are cutting their losses and running away from the sector.

Third, Energy stocks are a screaming bargain right now. They’re the cheapest EVER on a price-to-book value basis relative to the market, as you can see above. And that’s despite massive asset write-offs due to production cutbacks after the slump in oil prices.

Fourth, Wall Street HATES the energy sector right now, which instantly fuels my contrarian buying interest. Active mutual fund managers are historically underweight the energy sector, with their energy-stock holdings 20% less than the benchmark weighting in the S&P 500 Index!

What’s more, the energy sector’s percentage weight in the S&P 500 Index is now down to just 6%, the lowest level in thirteen years. And the last time the sector was this undervalued, back in 2004, energy stocks soared 275% higher over the next four and a half years!

Bottom line: We could see oil prices pull back some over the next few weeks, which could keep energy-sector stocks under pressure. But I expect a sizable rebound rally in the oversold and undervalued energy sector later this month.

The new uptrend should boost select energy stocks substantially next month. A great way to profit from the uptrend would be a shotgun approach with shares of IYE or the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which both track a broad index of U.S. energy stocks.

Good investing,

Mike Burnick

P.S. Members of my Real Wealth Report are taking a rifle-shot approach for leveraged profit potential in the energy sector with select stock recommendations that have the potential to double, or even triple in value in the months ahead. For details about how to identify the biggest winners in the energy sector, click here.

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Comments 5

  1. Kevin Chisholm July 10, 2017

    1: There is a glut of oil and gas.
    2: Oil and gas prices are low.
    3: World economies are 1 Black Swan Event from a crash.
    4: With a crash comes less demand for energy, and lower prices.

    Doesn’t look like a good time to buy energy stocks.

    Am I missing something?

    Reply

  2. Dan Macke July 10, 2017

    Whatever happened to Eldeson’s call of retesting oils lows, correction in the market, collapse of the Euro and $5,000 gold? So far this year nothing has come to be. Why not go over the 2017 predictions in the monthly newsletter?

    Reply

  3. Ernie July 10, 2017

    I am a retired oil refinery worker and even spent 14 months at Fort Mac. in mid 1978 assisting in the Sycrude start-up as a loanee. (my employer had a 12 1/2 % interest in the company) I am going to place your prediction amongst my files just to keep track. In my opinion inflation is the only thing that will raise prices as there is lots of oil available worldwide.

    Reply

  4. Paul July 10, 2017

    Mike…I think you are early…I agree with the Elliot Wave folks that oil is going to have a tough time this summer, and into fall..They have good chart analysis that shows a possible bottom at 30 or close thereof…The OPEC production cuts were a joke ever since they were announced..Saudi Arabia, for example, pumped more oil in the first 6 months of 2017 than 2016..Russia has shown no inclination to go along with any production cuts, and Libya and Iran have been turning on the spigot. Yes, there will be a time to back up the truck, but I think it will be about 90 days from now..Market share looks like the name of the game for at least the time being.. Anyway, the situation has to be monitored closely…technical points of support and resistance must be at the forefront and respected.. This is a very volatile sector…

    Reply

  5. Brian Schnare July 15, 2017

    Just an observation. Canada has a huge supply of oil. .. More than any other ally….Rather than bemoaning the low prices and the high labor costs in Canada to extract it,perhaps the industry should realize that oil is too valuable a building product to burn up. Can you imagine the world without the plastics that make up cars and structures and healthcare products? We should reserve the valuable product for combustion only when other renewable energy sources are fully used….I do not believe that we will ever have an electric jet passenger plane…..oil is so packed with energy it is too valuable to waste. I am so glad that both Canada and the USA are so fortunate.

    Reply